Drought Characterization Using Multiple Indices over the Abbay Basin, Ethiopia

Analyzing agricultural and hydrological drought at different timescales is essential for designing adaptation strategies. This study aimed to assess agricultural and hydrological drought in the Abbay Basin of Ethiopia by using multiple indices, namely the standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), vegetation condition index (VCI), and drought severity index (DSI). Climate extremes were assessed over the Abbay Basin between 1981 and 2022. The results indicate that the years 1982 and 2014 were the most drought-prone, while the year 1988 was the wettest year in the Abbay Basin. The results revealed the presence of extremely dry and severely dry conditions, potentially impacting agricultural output in the region. Agricultural drought was identified during the main crop seasons (June to September). The VCI results indicated the presence of extremely wet and severely wet conditions. In 2012, 65% of the area was affected by extreme drought conditions, while nearly half of the Basin experienced extreme drought in 2013 and 2022. The DSI results indicated the occurrence of agricultural drought, although the spatial coverage of extreme dry conditions was lower than that of the other indices. In 2003, 78.49% of the Basin experienced moderate drought conditions, whereas severe drought affected 20% of the region. In 2010, about 90% of the Basin experienced moderate drought. This study provides valuable insights for agricultural communities, enabling them to mitigate the impact of drought on crop yields by utilizing different adaptation strategies. An adequate knowledge of agricultural and hydrological drought is essential for policymakers to assess the potential effects of drought on socioeconomic activities and to recognize the significance of implementing climate change adaptation measures.