COVID-19 livelihood disruptions and hybrid resilience in Kigali’s low-income urban neighbourhoods

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic brought the global economy to its knees, with the urban livelihoods of the poor in the developing world particularly hit hard. Yet, how the pandemic impacted livelihoods in modernizing, mid-sized Global South cities like Kigali, Rwanda, remains underexplored. This study investigates the effects on Kigali’s low-income and informal residents by examining livelihood activities and challenges, resilience strategies, and trajectories across pre-, during-, and post-pandemic periods. Drawing on 30 in-depth interviews, the research employs the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach, urban vulnerability, and resilience theory as guiding frameworks to analyse experiences of residents in Kigali city. Findings highlight a dramatic shift from pre-crisis livelihood stability to widespread economic and social disruption during the pandemic, with urban residents, particularly those reliant on daily earnings and informal activities, facing acute job losses and distress. Resilience emerged through a hybrid of government aid, livelihood diversification, community and familial support, enabling some to adapt mid-crisis and others to transform livelihoods long-term. However, the pandemic also left a lingering psychological toll, with many residents reluctant to revisit their experiences, underscoring the enduring human legacy of crisis. Kigali’s modernising context offers a novel lens on urban crises, distinct from megacities or rural settings. The study argues that Kigali’s experience reframes urban vulnerability as a modernization paradox, where progress heightens precarity. The study advances urban scholarship, particularly in the developing world, by illuminating how modernisation can amplify vulnerability while fostering adaptive potential through blended support systems. The analyses call for policies for economic safety nets, skill development, and mental health support during and post-crises.