Conclusion

In the four North African countries, the early process of mobilization in protest events illustrated the contingent dynamics of events-generated events. The transformation of localized episodes of unrest into nationwide waves of unrest was not only the product of the strategic and coincidental actions of the protesters but also of the responses of the authoritarian systems in place. The different trajectories of change in the four polities can be used as counterfactuals to map varied scenarios of interactions between multiple players and to draw inferences. They illustrate how the variations in the sequencing of events, formation of arenas of contestation and construction of actors and practices shaped differently the outcomes of the uprisings in each state. Rather than stressing how these transformations are likely outcomes of pre-existing structural trends and tensions, an event-oriented account of the Arab uprisings illustrates instead how contingent these institutional re-articulations were.