COVID-19 In Shang Hai: It is Worth Learning  from the Successful Experience in Preventing and Controlling the Overseas Epidemic Situation

Abstract BackgroundCOVID-19 first appeared in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in late December 2019 and spread rapidly in China. Currently, the spread of local epidemics has been basically blocked. The import of overseas epidemics has become the main form of growth in China ’s new epidemic. As an important international transportation hub in China, Shanghai is one of the regions with the highest risk of imported cases abroad. Due to imported of overseas cases are affected by the international epidemic trend. The traditional infectious disease model is difficult to accurately predict the cumulative trend of cumulative cases in the Shanghai areas. It is also difficult to accurately evaluate the effectiveness of the international traffic blockade.MethodsIn this situation, this study takes Shanghai as an example to propose a new type of infectious disease prediction model. The model first uses the sparse graph model to analyze the international epidemic spread network to find countries and regions related to Shanghai. Next, multiple regression models were used to fit the existing COVID-19 growth data in Shanghai. Finally, the model predicts the growth curve of the COVID-19 epidemic in Shanghai without an international traffic blockade.ResultsIn this study, by constructing a sparse graph network model, 30 countries and regions related to Shanghai's overseas epidemic input were obtained, such as the United States. Moreover, the three regression models in this paper have obtained a good fitting effect. Finally, using data from 30 countries and regions related to Shanghai from April 4 to April 19 for a 15-day short-term forecast and comparing with real data, the results show that Shanghai’s international traffic blockade is effective and necessary.ConclusionThis research show that the control measures taken by Shanghai are very effective. At present, more and more countries and regions will face the current situation in Shanghai. We recommend that other countries and regions learn from Shanghai ’s successful experience in preventing overseas imports in order to fully prepare for epidemic prevention and control.