Socio-ecological contagion in Veganville

Abstract In order to meet the 2015 Paris Agreement for 1.5°C global warming, per capita emissions need to come down to 2.9 tonnes by 2030. Food systems are known to be a significant source of an individual’s carbon footprint and demands attention in sustainability management. The objective of this research is to conceptualise and define an intersection between contagion theory and socio-ecological systems models. This is achieved using a population dynamics model between two groups characterised by a distinct food regime: omnivores and vegans. The greenhouse gas emissions of each food regime is used to estimate the city’s changing carbon foodprint as the food regimes shift by social contagion. Social contagion is identified as a catalyst for social tipping points, and emission pathways are explored with a variety of different contagion variables to test sensitivity towards a tipping point. The main finding is that the urban carbon foodprint can be reduced significantly with widespread adoption of veganism, but that the foodprint reaches a minimum at 1.97 tonnes CO2-equivalent per capita. This demonstrates the need to embed food demand in urban climate governance such as nudging towards plant-based food alternatives. Nudging is discussed as a lever of ecological importance to social contagion. Lastly, socio-ecological contagion is defined as the interactions between social contagion and damage done to ecological systems to measure peer-to-peer spread of environmental stewardship agendas, such as the journey to Veganville.