Modeling the Influence of Transport and Accessibility on Residential Location Choice Using Multinomial Logistic Regression in Kisumu City, Kenya

This study investigated the influence of accessibility and transportation factors on residential location choices in Kisumu City, Kenya, using a multinomial logistic regression (MLR) framework. Principal component analysis was used to reduce the data into fewer constructs. Three key components, accessibility to relatives and friends, transport services, and social amenities, were operationalized as composite constructs comprising multiple independent variables. The component accessibility to social amenities was comprised of accessibility to shopping centers, sporting facilities, recreational areas, car parks, and modes of private transportation such as motorbikes, tuktuks, and private vehicles. The variable accessibility to transport services was comprised of accessibility to public transport, accessibility to relatives and friends, and the use of motorbikes, tuktuks, and matatus, while the component labeled accessibility to relatives and friends comprised a cluster of independent variables, including accessibility to relatives and friends, walking as a mode of transport, accessibility to bicycles, matatus (public minibuses), and private vehicles. The high-income residential category served as the reference group for comparative analysis. Results from likelihood ratio tests confirmed that all three components significantly affect residential decisions (p = .000). The 'accessibility to relatives and friends' component was strongly associated with preferences for low- and middle-income neighborhoods, with odds ratios of 8.429 and 15.357, respectively. Similarly, the 'accessibility to transport services' component increased the likelihood of selecting low- and middle-income areas by 386% and 500%, respectively, relative to high-income neighborhoods. In contrast, the 'accessibility to social amenities' component showed a negative association with low- and middle-income residential choices, with odds ratios of 0.138 and 0.120, indicating that concern for social amenities significantly favored high-income neighborhood selection. These findings suggest that while social and transport accessibility is critical for lower-income households, access to amenities is a stronger determinant for high-income residents. The results reflect broader socio-economic dynamics, where affordability constraints and limited infrastructure in low-income areas lead residents to prioritize social proximity and walkability over formal amenities. The study contributes to urban planning discourse by emphasizing the need for inclusive housing policies that account for both social networks and mobility patterns in rapidly urbanizing cities.