Developing the Futures Map Framework – an integrative hybrid foresight approach

Abstract Futures research typically involves the utilization of multiple methods, referred to as hybrid methods, to reach a particular objective. In this paper, the earlier Futures Map concept is developed into the Futures Map Framework (FMF), a hybrid foresight approach that operationalizes the Futures Map concept for practical use in organizations. The FMF Integrates alternative futures images and paths, visions, and roadmaps, and their respective methods. It addresses the limitations of these methods when used separately, leveraging their synergistic potential for more effective futures research and for more actionable futures from the perspective of those who will use the FMF. Furthermore, the key methodological choice for the framework are three time horizons related to decision making: the Past Horizon, the shorter-term Action horizon, and the longer-term Mapping horizon. The FMF suggests different roles for roadmaps and scenarios related to the Action Horizon and the Mapping Horizon, while the Past Horizon provides evidence for the other horizons. During the Action Horizon, the organization is committed to realizing the selected roadmap towards the vision. On the one hand, the Mapping Horizon scenarios open uncertainty with all its opportunities and risks for decision makers when they select the roadmap of the Action Horizon. On the other hand, the Mapping Horizon scenarios with new scenarios based on realized development are the frame for the construction of a new future roadmap that will follow and replace the roadmap of the earlier Action Horizon. The theoretical contribution of this paper is in the interpretation of visions, scenarios, and roadmaps in a synergistic manner, introducing the distinction between the Mapping Horizon and the Action Horizon; therefore combining past, present, and future time horizons, and proposing a foresight approach for their practice-oriented integration. While acknowledging the limitations of this paper, the special focus of the paper is on enhancing the FMF’s applicability for the use of real-world cases, thereby establishing its utility for futures research. Thus, we consider the paper contribute to the methodological advancement of futures research and foresight, while encouraging further research and development of integrative hybrid foresight approaches.