Models For Forecasting The Number Of Russian Grandparents

Russian demographic statistics does not provide information about the number of grandparents. The aim of our study is to present models for forecasting their number. We used data from the Human Fertility Database to estimate the average age of a mother at the birth of her first child. Based on the simulated age of Russian women’s entry into grandparenthood, the time series of the number of Russian grandmothers was created. To obtain prospective estimates of the number of Russian grandmothers, we tested various models used in demography to forecast population size – mathematical (based on exponential and logistic functions) and statistical (based on statistical characteristics of time series). To estimate the number of grandmothers who are significantly involved in caring for grandchildren, we used data from the Federal statistical survey. Our results are as follows: 1) there is an increase in the age of entry into grandparenthood; 2) we estimated the size of potential grandmothers in different years and we found two models which are more appropriate for forecasting: linear trend model and average absolute growth model; 3) using these models, we predicted an increase in the number of both potential and active grandmothers in the next 5 years.