Decomposition of driving factors and peak prediction of carbon emissions in key cities in China

Abstract Urban areas serve as important sources of carbon emissions, and carbon peaking at the urban level is of great significance for achieving the overall national goals. This article estimates the carbon emissions and intensity changes of 19 cities from 2000 to 2020 based on urban statistical data; Combined with the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) method, the driving factors of carbon emissions in all cities are analyzed; Combined with the multi-scenario prediction method, the carbon peak time and carbon emission intensity trends were predicted under different scenarios. The results showed that during the research period, with an overall upward trend in carbon emissions and a decreasing trend in carbon emission intensity year by year; Population effect and per capita GDP effect play a role in promoting urban carbon emissions in the process of urban development. Reducing energy intensity and energy consumption carbon intensity can effectively inhibit the growth of carbon emissions; Under the low-carbon scenario, all cities will achieve carbon peak before 2030. Under the baseline scenario, the vast majority of cities will achieve carbon peak before 2030, accounting for 89.47%; Under the high carbon scenario, cities with peak carbon emissions before 2030 only account for 63.16%.