Spatio-temporal variation and simulation prediction of carbon storage in Lijiang River Basin based on PLUS- InVEST model

Abstract Quantitative assessment and simulation of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage are of significant importance for future climate regulation and ecosystem management. In this paper, focusing on the Lijiang River Basin, we utilized the PLUS model and the InVEST model to evaluate the dynamic changes in land use and carbon storage from 2001 to 2041 under different development scenarios. The results indicate: (1) From 2001 to 2021, the areas of forest, shrub, grassland, and water bodies decreased, while the areas of cropland and impervious land increased. (2) Under the three scenarios, the changes in land use areas exhibited distinct characteristics. (3) From 2001 to 2021, the carbon storage in the Basin exhibited an overall declining trend. Under the scenarios of inertial development, ecological priority, and urban development, the projected carbon storage in Basin for 2041 will be 144.27×106t, 145.72×106t, and 143.8×106t, respectively. (4) The carbon storage in the karst landform area decreased by 3.85%, and the carbon storage in the non-karst landform area decreased by 2.57%. Those results suggest that implementing reasonable planning and restrictions in construction areas, as well as controlling the conversion of high carbon density land to low carbon density land, can contribute to increasing regional carbon storage. Therefore, the results obtained can provide scientific references for optimizing regional land use structure, improving regional ecosystem carbon storage, and serving the construction of Guilin National sustainable development agenda innovation demonstration zone.