Colonization and extinction dynamics of an annual plant metapopulation in an urban environment

The metapopulation framework considers that the spatiotemporal distribution of organisms results from a balance between the colonization and extinction of populations in a suitable and discrete habitat network. Recent spatially realistic metapopulation models have allowed patch dynamics to be investigated in natural populations but such models have rarely been applied to plants. Using a simple urban fragmented population system in which favourable habitat can be easily mapped, we studied patch dynamics in the annual plant Crepis sancta (Asteraceae). Using stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) and multi‐year occupancy data we dissected extinction and colonization patterns in our system. Overall, our data were consistent with two distinct metapopulation scenarios. A metapopulation (sensu stricto) dynamic in which colonization occurs over a short distance and extinction is lowered by nearby occupied patches (rescue effect) was found in a set of patches close to the city centre, while a propagule rain model in which colonization occurs from a large external population was most consistent with data from other networks. Overall, the study highlights the importance of external seed sources in urban patch dynamics. Our analysis emphasizes the fact that plant distributions are governed not only by habitat properties but also by the intrinsic properties of colonization and dispersal of species. The metapopulation approach provides a valuable tool for understanding how colonization and extinction shape occupancy patterns in highly fragmented plant populations. Finally, this study points to the potential utility of more complex plant metapopulation models than traditionally used for analysing ecological and evolutionary processes in natural metapopulations.