Drivers of unwanted births in Bangladesh (2004 ̶ 2014): A decomposition analysis

Abstract Background In Bangladesh, about 30 percent of the total births a woman on average have (2.3 births) are unwanted. Reduction in unwanted births is very important for family wellbeing, and control of rapid population growth. This reduction requires in-depth knowledge about the factors associated with the change in unwanted childbearing. This study examines the contributions of population structure, external factors that is family planning programmes, and their interaction to the change in the proportion of women having unwanted birth during 2004 ̶ 2007, 2007 ̶ 2011 and 2011 ̶ 2014. Methods This study uses the notion of standardization approach for measuring the effects of family planning programmes and non-programme factors on unwanted childbearing. Using Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey data, we employ both aggregate and detailed three-fold decomposition technique to decompose the changes in the proportion having unwanted birth into the contributions of the three different factors. In decomposing the changes, we use logistic regression estimates. Results About 10.3 percent women are found to have unwanted birth in 2014. This percentage remains almost unchanged during 2004−2007, but declines significantly during 2007−2011 and 2011−2014. Population structure exerts significant reducing effect on proportion having unwanted birth during all the study periods, while external factors exerts significant negative effect only during 2011−2014. Interaction effect is found non-significant during all the study periods. All the factors found significantly associated with unwanted childbearing in logistic regression analysis do not show significant effect on its changes in detailed decomposition analysis. Structural effects of respondent’s age at marriage and education are found significantly negative during all the study periods. Conclusions In Bangladesh, significant reducing effect of population structure amid non-declining family planning programmes reduces the proportion having unwanted birth, while simultaneous reducing effects of structure and family planning programmes during a period result in a more pronounced decline. Substantial decline in women marrying before age 18 and having no education is likely to play a vital role in resulting a population structure that may have significant reducing effect on the proportion having unwanted birth.