The spatiotemporal link of temporal expectations: contextual temporal expectation is independent of spatial attention

Abstract Temporal expectation is the ability to construct predictions regarding the timing of events, based on previously-experienced temporal regularities of different types. For example, cue-based expectations are constructed when a cue validly indicates when a target is expected to occur. However, in the absence of such cues, expectations can be constructed based on contextual temporal information, including the event’s hazard-rate function – its moment-by-moment conditional probability that changes over time; and prior experiences, which provide probabilistic information regarding the event’s predicted timing (sequential effects). It was previously suggested that cue-based temporal expectation is exerted via synchronization of spatially-specific neural activity at a target's predictable time, within receptive fields corresponding to the target’s expected location. Here, we tested if the same theoretical model holds for contextual temporal effects. Participants (n = 40) performed a speeded spatial-cueing detection task, with two-thirds valid spatial cues. The target’s hazard-rate function was modulated by varying the foreperiod – the interval between the spatial cue and the target - among trials, and was manipulated between groups by changing the interval distribution. Reaction times were analyzed using both frequentist and Bayesian generalized linear mixed models, accounting for hazard and sequential effects. Results showed that the effects of contextual temporal structures on reaction times were independent of spatial attention. This suggests that the spatiotemporal mechanisms, thought to account for cue-based expectation, cannot explain other sources of temporal expectations. We conclude that expectations based on contextual structures have different characteristics than cue-based temporal expectation, suggesting reliance on distinct neural mechanisms. Significance statement Temporal expectation is the ability to predict an event onset based on temporal regularities. A neurophysiological model suggested that temporal expectation relies on the synchronization of spatially-specific neurons whose receptive fields represent the attended location. This model predicts that temporal expectation would be evident solely within the locus of spatial attention. Existing evidence supported this model for expectation based on associations between a temporal cue and a target, but here we show that it cannot account for another source of temporal expectation – expectation that is based on contextual information, i.e. hazard-rate and recent priors. These findings reveal the existence of different predictive mechanisms for cued and contextual temporal predictions, with the former depending on spatial attention and the latter non-spatially-specific.