Analysis and Prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak in Pakistan

Abstract In this study we estimate the severity of the COVID-19 outbreak in Pakistan prior to and after lock down restrictions were eased. We also project the epidemic curve considering realistic quarantine, social distancing and possible medication scenarios. We use a deterministic epidemic model that includes asymptomatic, quarantined, isolated and medicated population compartments for our analysis. We calculate the basic reproduction number ℛ 0 for the pre and post lock down periods, noting that during this time no medication was available. 1 The pre-lock down value of ℛ 0 is estimated to be 1.07 and the post lock down value is estimated to be 1.86. We use this analysis to project the epidemic curve for a variety of lock down, social distancing and medication scenarios. We note that if no substantial efforts are made to contain the epidemic, it will peak in mid of September, with the maximum projected active cases being close to 700,000. In a realistic, best case scenario, we project that the epidemic peaks in early to mid July with the maximum active cases being around 120000.We note that social distancing measures and medication if available will help flatten the curve, however without the reintroduction of further lock down it would be very difficult to bring ℛ 0 below 1. Our study strongly supports the recent WHO recommendation of reintroducing lock downs to control the epidemic.