Preliminary Estimates of Years of Life Lost (YLL) Due to COVID-19 in India (Preprint)

BACKGROUND More than 7 million cases of COVID have been detected in India by the middle of October 2020 and more than 100 thousand deaths have occurred.It is not known yet how much years of life are being lost due to this disease. OBJECTIVE In this communication, we present an estimate of the years of life lost (YLL) due to COVID-19 so far and the projection for the full year so that the health damage by this new disease can be compared with some other ailments such as road injuries. METHODS The YLL by one premature death is the expectation of life at that age. To calculate YLL, the age-wise distribution of COVID cases and deaths was obtained from various sources. Similar calculations were done for the general population from all causes for comparison. RESULTS A total of more than 2 million years of life have already lost due to COVID-19 and the pattern indicates that we may end up with nearly 4 million YLL due to this disease in India. This is nearly 20 years lost per COVID death, 303 years lost per 1000 cases of COVID, and about 3 years lost per 1000 population in a full year. The age-group 50-59 years has been particularly affected. Other important findings are summarized as key messages. CONCLUSIONS The years of life lost so far and anticipated in full-year are enormous but may still be lower compared with some other causes such as road injuries.