Asian Monsoon Projection With a New Large-Scale Monsoon Definition

Abstract This paper focuses on Asian monsoon projection with CMIP5 multi-model outputs. A large-scale monsoon herewith is defined as a vector field of vertically integrated moisture flux from the surface to 500 hPa. Results demonstrate that the model ensemble mean underestimated the summer monsoon and overestimated slightly the winter monsoon over South Asia in both CMIP5 historical climate simulation and the monsoon projection for 2006-2015. The major of the bias is the model climate drift (MCD), which is removed in the monsoon projection for 2016 -2045 under scenarios RCP4.5 for reducing the uncertainty. The projection shows that two increased moisture flows northward appeared across the Equator of Indian Ocean, the first is nearby Somalia coast toward northwestern part of South Asia, leading to excess rainfall in where the wet jet could reach, and the second starts from the equatorial section (80°E-100°E) toward northeastern Bay of Bengal, leading to more rainfall spreading over the northwestern coast of Indochina Peninsula. In addition, a westward monsoon flow is intensified over the Peninsula leading to local climate moisture transport belt shifted onto South China Sea, which would reduce moisture transport toward Southwest China on one hand, and transport more moisture onto the southeast coast of the China mainland. The anomalous monsoon would result in a dry climate in Northwest China and wet climate in the coast belt during summer monsoon season for the period. Besides, the Asian winter monsoon would be seemingly intensified slightly over South Asia, which would bring a dry winter climate to Indian subcontinent, Northwest China, but would be more rainfall in southeast part of Arabian peninsula with global climate warming.