Estimating Health Burden and potential benefits of mitigating particulate matter pollution in Pakistan

Abstract An increasing trend in PM2.5 concentrations is observed in different provinces of Pakistan. This research was designed to analyze the impact of PM2.5 pollutions on various health endpoints such as ALRI, COPD, IHD and Stroke. An AirQ+ analysis was generated for the year 2019 to understand the long term health burden attributed to the PM2.5 in Pakistan. The annual PM2.5 concentrations over various regions were obtained from Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service database. Furthermore, an impact evaluation on disease morbidity was also generated using counter-factual equations to highlight the importance of reducing PM2.5 concentrations to WHO Air quality guideline and Pak NEQS. Results indicated that Punjab had the highest health burden due to being densely populated also it had the highest PM2.5 concentration of 77.3 µg/m³ and GB being the least populated region had the least health burden attributed to PM2.5 as it has the concentration of 13.89 µg/m³. Overall for 2019 Pakistan’s annual PM2.5 concentration reported was 45.66 µg/m³ and based on this ALRI has the highest estimated attributable proportion percentage of 23.40% followed by COPD (19.40%), IHD (11.88%) and Stroke (10.80%). A slight effort to control the PM2.5 concentrations to permissible limits can significantly help in reducing the health burden and retaining the associated economic cost.