Spatial zoning of macauba palm (Acrocomia aculeata) for sustainable biofuels supply and decarbonization

Sustainable biofuel expansion depends on identifying landscapes where new feedstocks can be cultivated without accelerating deforestation, a major source of greenhouse gas emissions in tropical regions. Acrocomia aculeata (macaúba), a high-oil perennial palm native to the Neotropics, has emerged as a promising feedstock for low-carbon fuels such as SAF, HVO, and biodiesel. However, its large-scale potential remains uncertain because climatic suitability, land-use constraints, and future climate change have not been jointly assessed across its full geographic range. Here, we integrate species distribution modeling with land-use and exclusion mapping to produce a spatially explicit agroecological zoning for macaúba across the Americas. The framework combines current and projected climate data with topographic and edaphic variables and overlays these with pasture and protected-area masks to identify areas compatible with zero-deforestation expansion. Under current climate conditions, excluded areas dominate, covering 82.4% of South America and 57.7% of regions north of South America. Highly suitable anthropized lands—those with optimal climate and already converted uses such as pastures—represent a smaller but relevant share (1.6% in South America and 2.9% north of South America). The Minimum Temperature of the Coldest Month is the most influential predictor, highlighting strong sensitivity to low-temperature thresholds. Future projections under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 maintain the general suitability pattern but expand excluded areas (up to 86.8–89.4% in South America and 70.2% north of South America) and reduce highly suitable anthropized lands. By distinguishing high- and moderate-suitability zones under current and future climates, this study provides a practical framework for climate-aligned bioenergy planning.