Turkey’s «imperial overstretch» in the context of neo-Ottoman policy

The subject of the study is the set of ideological, economic and political factors shaping Turkey’s crisis trajectory in the context of implementing a neo-Ottoman course. The object of the study is Turkey’s foreign policy, domestic political and socio-economic dynamics during the rule of the Justice and Development Party. The author examines in detail the transformation of the moderately Islamist government’s approach to the neo-Ottoman agenda, which ultimately resulted in a complex of socio-economic imbalances. Particular attention is paid to identifying the systemic interconnection between the implementation of the neo-Ottoman course, the institutional transformation of Turkey’s political system within this framework, and the emergence of the contemporary crisis. To this end, key macroeconomic indicators for 2002–2025 are analysed, alongside markers of social tension most clearly manifested during the 2023 presidential and parliamentary elections. The study also evaluates the political, economic and institutional measures that generated structural preconditions for the country’s entry into a phase of «imperial overstretch». The research employs geopolitical and civilisational approaches, analysis and synthesis of empirical data, systemic, comparative and historical methods, statistical analysis, and elements of the theory of «imperial overstretch». The principal conclusion is that Turkey’s current crisis is systemic and may be interpreted as the country’s entry into a phase of «imperial overstretch» driven by the neo-Ottoman course. The study’s distinctive contribution lies in the comprehensive application of «imperial overstretch» theory to contemporary Turkey, integrating foreign policy, domestic politics and economic parameters into a unified analytical model. It provides the first empirical verification of this hypothesis, demonstrating the link between the neo-Ottoman agenda and the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances, thereby threatening both Turkey’s geopolitical ambitions and its entire neo-Ottoman line.