A reversed interpretation of the Dunning-Kruger effect based on disturbance

The Dunning-Kruger effect describes a phenomenon where individuals with low ability allegedly tend to overestimate their ability. According to a contemporary operationalization of the Dunning-Kruger effect, individuals with low measured ability are predicted to have higher self-rated ability in a LOESS (locally estimated scatterplot smoothing) model compared with a linear regression model. In simulations we show that a Dunning-Kruger effect can appear due to an impact of disturbance on measured ability, even when self-rated ability is a perfect measure of true ability. A higher self-rated than measured ability may be due to measured ability underestimating true ability rather than due to self-rated ability being an overestimation. Hence, Dunning-Kruger effects do not prove that individuals with low measured ability overestimate their true ability.