Inflation Expectations Measurement and its Effect on Inflation Dynamics in Colombia

Accurate measurement of inflation expectations is crucial due to its significant impact on inflation dynamics and the potential for biased estimates when using different measurement methods. The main objective of this study is to determine whether the effect of inflation expectations on inflation dynamics in Colombia depends on the measurement method employed. We achieve this by estimating New-Keynesian Phillips Curves using various measurement methods for inflation expectations employing data from financial markets, economic surveys, and macroeconomic models. Our analysis focuses on any differences in the statistical significance and magnitude of the effects of inflation expectations on inflation dynamics using different measurement methods. Our results reveal that while all measures of inflation expectations have a statistically significant effect, the magnitude of the effect varies depending on the measurement method employed. Specifically, market-based expectations have a more substantial effect on inflation dynamics compared to survey-based and model-based expectations.