Future Trends in Supply of Petroleum Engineering Manpower (Whiting)

Whiting, Robert L., Member SPE-AIME, Texas A and M Univ. Abstract The purpose of this paper is to discuss the future trends in the supply of petroleum engineering manpower. Historical, U.S. graduate and petroleum engineering manpower. Historical, U.S. graduate and undergraduate total and petroleum engineering enrollment and degree productivity for the past forty years are documented. Trends are analyzed productivity for the past forty years are documented. Trends are analyzed and apparent reasons are given fro the supply-demand imbalance which occurred three times during the period. Future supply of petroleum engineering graduates for the next ten years is predicted upon the basis of past history and also several other assumptions. The number and annual past history and also several other assumptions. The number and annual demand for total engineering and petroleum engineering graduates in drilling and/or production activities during the past five years is summarized. For the next ten years, the petroleum industry estimate of the demand for petroleum engineers is compared with the supply of petroleum engineering graduates. Petroleum technology program statistics, past and future predictions, are Petroleum technology program statistics, past and future predictions, are presented. Past petroleum engineering enrollment and degree productivity presented. Past petroleum engineering enrollment and degree productivity in Universities in foreign countries are cited and future productivity estimated. Finally, the impact of the demand for petroleum engineering graduates on the quality and stability of petroleum engineering departments is discussed. Introduction For at least the past twenty years, it has been apparent that all curricula in American Universities exhibited cyclic enrollment and degree productivity. Such behavior can be attributed to the imbalance of supply productivity. Such behavior can be attributed to the imbalance of supply and demand. The author feels that it is not improper to observe at this time that those engaged in certain curricula, such as government, economics, business administration, liberal arts, etc., exhibit little concern for the magnitude of the degree productivity of their particular field of specialization. Consequently, the market is greatly oversupplied with these graduates, jobs are not available, and hence, students are motivated to pursue graduate studies. Usually only a small percentage of the advanced degree recipients are able to find employment in their field of specialization. The author abhors this situation and considers it detrimental to the individual concerned and society in general. The individual's time and resources are wasted, or at least inefficiently utilized, as well as the tax-payers dollars. Such an experience has a serious impact on the individual's dignity since he has spent so much and then finds that there is no use for his talents. America owes it to its young people to eliminate this situation. I am delighted to learn that Governor Briscoe of Texas is initiating action to remedy this deplorable situation. Engineering has also experienced this oversupply but, fortunately, not to the extent of the aforementioned fields. However, petroleum and aeronautical engineering have experienced periods of great oversupply in the past forty years. SPE has recognized this as a serious situation for a number of years and has been scheduling forums, such as this one today, annually. The author feels that the future of petroleum engineering education is dependent upon the reconciliation of the supply-demand imbalance of petroleum engineering graduates. It is his fervent hope that as a result of all previous discussions, interested parties will act immediately to prevent a supply-demand imbalance of petroleum engineering graduates in the future.