1438Dynamics of inter-farm transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza integrating vehicle movements and phylogenetic information

Abstract Background Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), a zoonotic infectious disease, has been considered a severe threat to public health. The fundamental prevention and control strategy against HPAI includes minimizing the outbreaks of poultry holdings where the virus primarily spreads through animal trade and poultry production associated vehicle movement (PPVM). However, very few attempts have been made to elucidate the association between PPVM and HPAI transmission compared to studies on poultry trade. Therefore, our study aimed to elucidate the role of PPVM on HPAI transmission. Methods We performed network analysis using PPVM data based on a global positioning system (GPS), with phylogenetic information of the HPAI virus for reliable estimation. Moreover, the contribution of PPVM to HPAI infection was estimated by Bayesian inference. Results The network analysis revealed that the connection via PPVM between the same genetic group of infected premises (IPs) was more prevalent than that of different genotype IPs. Moreover, the similarity of farm poultry species and the overlapped integrators between inter-linked IPs was associated with potential transmission route formation. Additionally, the contribution of PPVM among phylogenetically clustered IPs was estimated to have 28.25% of HPAI infections in IPs on average. Conclusions HPAI control strategies including targeted movement restriction and standstill should be established against the HPAI transmission via PPVM. Key messages This is a solid and novel study depicting the need for combining epidemiological analysis with data regarding molecular epidemiology of pathogens.