Stress Accumulation and Earthquake Activity on the Great Sumatran Fault, Indonesia

Abstract The seismically active Sumatra subduction zone has generated some of the largest earthquakes in the instrumental record, and both historical accounts and paleogeodetic coral studies indicate such activity has historical recorded megathrust earthquakes and transferred stress to the surrounding, including the Great Sumatran Fault (GSF). Therefore, evaluating the stress transfer from these large subduction earthquakes could delineate the highly stressed area as potential-earthquake region along the GSF. In this study, we investigated eight megathrust earthquakes from 1797 to 2010 and resolved the accumulated Coulomb stress changes onto the 18 segments along the GSF. Additionally, we also estimated the rate of tectonic stress on the GSF segments which experienced large earthquake using the case of: (1) no sliver movement and (2) with sliver movement. Based on the historical stress changes of large earthquakes and the increase in tectonic stress rate, we analysed the historical stress changes time evolution on the GSF. The Coulomb stress accumulation of megathrust earthquakes between 1797-1907 increase the stress changes mainly on the southern part of GSF which followed by four major events between 1890-1943. The estimation of tectonic stress rates using case (1) produces low rate and long recurrence intervals which implies that the megathrust earthquakes plays an important role in allowing the GSF earthquake to occur. When implementing the arc-parallel sliver movement of case (2) to the calculation, the tectonic stress rates is 9 to 58 times higher than case (1) of no sliver movement. The observed slip rate of 15-16 mm/yr at the GSF is consistent with the recurrence interval for full-segment rupture of 100-200 years obtained from case (2). This suggests that the GSF earthquake is more controlled by the rapid arc-parallel forearc sliver motion. Furthermore, the analysis of stress changes time evolution model shows that some segments such as Tripa (North and South), Angkola, Musi and Manna appear to be brought back in their seismic cycles since these segments have experienced full-segment rupture and likely locked, increasing their earthquake hazard potentials.