Insights into the population dynamics of Anastrepha obliqua and Anastrepha ludens in the neotropical limits of Mexico

AbstractAnastrepha obliqua Macquart and Anastrepha ludens Loew (Diptera: Tephritidae) represent persistent pests of quarantine significance affecting mango and citrus agroecosystems, respectively, in Mexico. We aimed to analyze the population dynamics of A. obliqua and A. ludens and the effects of endogenous and exogenous factors on the population regulation in the neotropical limits of Mexico. We explored endogenous dynamics of A. obliqua and A. ludens populations based on short sequences of time series data of adult captures from 2008 to 2010. Moreover, we analyzed the relationship between the rate of population change () and population density as an endogenous factor, and temperature, precipitation, fruit availability, and the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAOi) as exogenous factors. Autocorrelation and partial‐rate correlation functions were used to evaluate the endogenous dynamics of populations. Generalized least square models including autoregressive–moving‐average structures were performed to assess the relationships between the and endogenous and exogenous factors. Results revealed annual patterns in the population fluctuation for both Anastrepha obliqua and A. ludens. Anastrepha obliqua and A. ludens population peaks occurred from August to September–October, and from January to July, respectively. The dynamics of the suggest persistent pest populations modulated by a first‐order feedback structure, although higher orders in feedback structures were also exhibited. Significant relationships between and population density, temperature, fruit availability, and the NAOi were observed. These findings may be a technical and ecological basis to design environmentally friendly strategies against wild populations under an area‐wide integrated pest management (AW‐IPM) approach.