Beyond Forecasting: Reimagining Early Warning Systems amid the Sahel Crisis for Sustainable Africa-EU Peacebuilding

The incessant crisis in the Sahel region has not only revealed the shortcomings of reactive conflict management practices, but also the significance of effective early warning systems (EWS) to sustainable peace in Africa and the European Union (EU). This research paper examines the implications of EWS in preventing conflicts with reference to the interdependent security relations between the Sahel and Europe. The specific objectives of this paper are to identify the structural, technological, and political factors that shape the performance of both systems and to assess their relevance to conflict management in regions such as the Sahel.   Based on a comparative study of the African Union (AU) Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) and the European Union (EU) Conflict Early Warning System (CFEWS), the paper reviews how these structural, political, and technological issues undermine the relevance of the early warning systems. The paper, based on recent advances in the field of artificial intelligence and big data analytics, demonstrates the possible ways of enhancing the accuracy of predictions and response systems through technological innovations when they are adequately incorporated. The paper adopts a qualitative comparative case analysis in its methodology, relying on secondary sources, which include policy documents, official reports, and scholarly literature. The results indicate that lack of political will, gaps in data and lack of synergy among stakeholders overseeing the systems largely lower the effectiveness of early warning systems in the two regions. The study concludes by recommending a strengthened Africa-EU collaboration, digital technologies, and community-based early warning and response as essential pathways to a long-term prevention of conflicts and stability in the region.