Understanding the Airbnb community and its community impact: the use of scenarios to build resilience.

Abstract This conceptual chapter looks back at two scenario studies of the development of 'home-sharing', and in particular Airbnb, that were conducted in 2015 and 2018, respectively. These studies revolved around analyses of different interpretations and controversies that surrounded the emergent phenomenon: (i) the question, whether 'home-sharing' facilitated a new mode of consumption and, with that, the integration of tourists in resident communities; (ii) the empowering effects Airbnb claimed to have in resident communities; and (iii) the spatial distribution of tourism that 'home-sharing' would cause. These three debates are closely linked to the 'community' concept as it is used by Airbnb. The scenario studies gave insight, at an early stage, into the decisiveness of tourism growth in the eventual development of Airbnb. They also gave an early warning that without transparency local communities would be unable to impose their norms to control the phenomenon's undesirable impacts. The implication is that scenarios can help communities in strategic decision making.