Evaluating Conservation Effectiveness of a Ramsar Wetland Using Multi-Temporal Land-Use Change Analysis: Evidence from the Keta Lagoon Complex, Ghana

Wetlands provide critical ecosystem services but are increasingly threatened by land-use change and anthropogenic pressures. The Ramsar Convention on Wetlands promotes conservation through site designation; however, its effectiveness remains insufficiently evaluated using empirical spatial data. This study assesses conservation effectiveness in the Keta Lagoon Complex Ramsar Site, Ghana, by analysing spatiotemporal land-use and land-cover (LULC) dynamics between 2019 and 2024. Multi-temporal Sentinel-2 imagery was processed within Google Earth Engine and classified using a Random Forest algorithm into four land-cover classes: open water, wetland vegetation, agriculture/degraded wetland and built-up/bare land. Classification accuracy was high, with overall accuracy exceeding 98% and Kappa coefficients above 0.97 for both study years. To evaluate conservation effectiveness, LULC changes within the Ramsar core area were compared with a 1 km buffer zone. Results indicate partial persistence of open water and wetland vegetation within the core area, suggesting limited direct land conversion. In contrast, the buffer zone exhibited significant expansion of built-up and degraded land, indicating increasing anthropogenic pressure. These findings suggest that while Ramsar designation contributes to maintaining internal wetland stability, it is less effective in addressing landscape-scale drivers of change. The study highlights the importance of integrating buffer zone management and spatial monitoring into wetland conservation strategies. Overall, the results demonstrate the value of remote sensing–based approaches for evaluating conservation outcomes in data-limited regions.