Seamless postprocessing of multi-model NWP surface wind forecasts with deep learning

<p>Hourly wind forecasts from numerical weather prediction models suffer from a range of systematic and random errors that are to a great extent related to limitations in the model grid resolution. To correct for such biases, statistical postprocessing and downscaling procedures are commonly applied so to leverage the information provided by automatic wind measurements at the surface. More recently, such techniques have been reformulated in a machine learning framework so to profit from the increased availability of data and computational resources. The results reported in the literature are promising and call for a serious evaluation of their potential for operational forecasting.</p><p>However, there remain several scientific and more applied challenges that need to be addressed before such methods can transition to real-world applications. One such challenge relates to the availability of multiple ensemble forecasts for the same point in time and space, which raises the question of how the information can be efficiently and optimally handled during postprocessing, so to provide added value to the end-user without adding technical debt to the operational system.</p><p>We propose an approach where a single deep learning model is trained to postprocess a combination of three ensemble forecasting systems, namely the high-resolution regional COSMO model with two configurations, and the ECMWF IFS ENS global ensemble forecasting system. We will show how the training is set up to provide a robust postprocessing model that can account for real time scenarios that include missing data and late model runs, while the quality of the forecasts remains comparable to a single-model approach. We found that the flexibility of the deep learning architecture translates into a robust automatic postprocessing solution that limits the maintenance burden and improves the system’s reliability.</p>