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Evaluating the Vulnerability of Tetracentron sinense Habitats to Climate-Induced Altitudinal Shifts
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Objective:
Exploring the evolving geographical distribution
pattern of
Tetracentron sinense
and its main influencing factors
since the last interglacial can provide a scientific foundation for the
efficient conservation and administration of the species.
Methods:
The MaxEnt model was used to construct the potential
distribution areas of
T. sinense
in different periods such as the
last interglacial, the last glacial maximum, the Mid-Holocene, the
current and future. On the premise of discussing the influence of
dominant environmental factors on its distribution model, the suitable
area changes of
T. sinense
under different ecological climate
situations were quantitatively analyzed.
Results:
The AUC value
predicted by the optimized model was 0.959, indicating a good predictive
effect by the MaxEnt model; the potential suitable areas for
T.
sinense
in the current are mainly located in southwest China, which are
wider compared to the actual habitats. Jackknife testing showed that the
lowest temperature in the coldest month, elevation, seasonal variation
coefficient of temperature and surface calcium carbonate content are the
dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of
T.
sinense
. From the last interglacial to the current, the total suitable
area of
T. sinense
showed a decreasing trend; the distribution
points of
T. sinense
populations in Mid-Holocene may be the
origin of the postglacial population, and Southwest China may be its
glacial biological refuge. Compared with the current, the total suitable
area ranges of
T. sinense
in China in the future decreased, and
the centroid location of its total fitness area all migrated to the
northwest, with the largest migration distance in 2070s under the SSPs
7.0 climate scenario.
Conclusion:
Temperature was the most
important factor affecting the distribution of
T. sinense
. With
the global warming, its suitable area ranges will show a shrinking
trend. Ex-situ conservation measures could be taken to preserve its
germplasm resources.
Title: Evaluating the Vulnerability of Tetracentron sinense Habitats to Climate-Induced Altitudinal Shifts
Description:
Objective:
Exploring the evolving geographical distribution
pattern of
Tetracentron sinense
and its main influencing factors
since the last interglacial can provide a scientific foundation for the
efficient conservation and administration of the species.
Methods:
The MaxEnt model was used to construct the potential
distribution areas of
T.
sinense
in different periods such as the
last interglacial, the last glacial maximum, the Mid-Holocene, the
current and future.
On the premise of discussing the influence of
dominant environmental factors on its distribution model, the suitable
area changes of
T.
sinense
under different ecological climate
situations were quantitatively analyzed.
Results:
The AUC value
predicted by the optimized model was 0.
959, indicating a good predictive
effect by the MaxEnt model; the potential suitable areas for
T.
sinense
in the current are mainly located in southwest China, which are
wider compared to the actual habitats.
Jackknife testing showed that the
lowest temperature in the coldest month, elevation, seasonal variation
coefficient of temperature and surface calcium carbonate content are the
dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of
T.
sinense
.
From the last interglacial to the current, the total suitable
area of
T.
sinense
showed a decreasing trend; the distribution
points of
T.
sinense
populations in Mid-Holocene may be the
origin of the postglacial population, and Southwest China may be its
glacial biological refuge.
Compared with the current, the total suitable
area ranges of
T.
sinense
in China in the future decreased, and
the centroid location of its total fitness area all migrated to the
northwest, with the largest migration distance in 2070s under the SSPs
7.
0 climate scenario.
Conclusion:
Temperature was the most
important factor affecting the distribution of
T.
sinense
.
With
the global warming, its suitable area ranges will show a shrinking
trend.
Ex-situ conservation measures could be taken to preserve its
germplasm resources.
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