A reconstruction of warm water inflow to Upernavik Isstrøm since AD 1925 and its relation to glacier retreat

Abstract. The mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet has increased over the past two decades. Marine-terminating glaciers contribute significantly to this mass loss due to increased melting and ice discharge. Rapid retreat periods of these tidewater glaciers have been linked to the concurrent inflow of warm, Atlantic derived waters. However, little is known about the variability of Atlantic-derived waters within these fjords, due to a lack of multi-annual, in situ measurements. Thus, to better understand the potential role of ocean warming on glacier retreat, reconstructions that characterize the variability of Atlantic water inflow to these fjords are required. Here, we investigate foraminiferal assemblages in a sediment core from Upernavik Fjord, West Greenland, in which the major ice stream Upernavik Isstrøm terminates. We investigate the environmental characteristics that control species diversity and derive that it is predominantly controlled by changes in bottom water variability. Hence, we provide a reconstruction of Atlantic water inflow to Upernavik Fjord, spanning the period 1925–2012. This reconstruction reveals peak Atlantic water inflow during the 1930s and again after 2000, a pattern that is similar to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). We compare these results to historical observations of front positions of Upernavik Isstrøm. This reveals that inflow of warm, Atlantic-derived waters indeed likely contributed to high retreat rates in the 1930s and after 2000. However, moderate retreat rates of Upernavik Isstrøm also prevailed in the 1960s/1970s, showing that retreat continued despite reduced Atlantic water inflow, albeit at a lower rate. Considering the link between bottom water variability and the AMO in Upernavik Fjord and the fact that a persistent negative phase of the AMO is expected for the next decade, Atlantic water inflow into the fjord may decrease in the next ~ 10 years.