Predictors of Graft Failure After Primary Medial Patellofemoral Ligament Reconstruction

Background: The tibiofemoral rotation angle has been found to be higher in patients with recurrent patellar dislocations (RPDs) than in healthy people; however, little is known about the clinical significance of this finding. Purpose: To determine whether an increased tibiofemoral rotation angle is associated with graft failure after primary medial patellofemoral ligament reconstruction (MPFL-R) and to investigate the role of the tibiofemoral rotation angle in predicting MPFL-R failure in patients with RPDs. Study Design: Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the records of 632 consecutive patients with clinically diagnosed RPDs from 2011 to 2018. Postoperative stress radiography of the patellofemoral joint was performed to identify whether the graft failed. After a review, 33 patients who showed MPFL-R failure were allocated to the failure group. They were matched 1:2 to 66 participants who underwent successful MPFL-R (control group). The cutoff value and area under the curve (AUC) of the tibiofemoral rotation angle for predicting graft failure after primary MPFL-R were determined, and the risk factors for MPFL-R failure were assessed by multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results: The tibiofemoral rotation angle was significantly higher in the failure group than in the control group (16.4° ± 5.6° vs 6.4° ± 4.5°, respectively; P < .001). The cutoff value of the tibiofemoral rotation angle for predicting graft failure was 12.3° (sensitivity, 81.8%; specificity, 89.4%; AUC, 0.920). Overall, 3 risk factors for MPFL-R failure were determined: excessive tibiofemoral rotation (≥12.3°) (odds ratio [OR], 13.159 [95% CI, 2.469-70.139]; P = .003), a preoperative high-grade J-sign (OR, 7.674 [95% CI, 1.232-47.809]; P = .029), and a femoral tunnel malposition (OR, 6.976 [95% CI, 1.077-45.187]; P = .042). Conclusion: In this study, excessive tibiofemoral rotation, a preoperative high-grade J-sign, and a femoral tunnel malposition were identified as risk factors for graft failure after primary MPFL-R in patients with RPDs. More importantly, excessive tibiofemoral rotation ( ≥ 12.3°) may predict the failure of primary MPFL-R, which can help surgeons easily identify high-risk patients of MPFL-R failure before surgery.