Multi-scenario Simulation Analysis of the Impact of Land Use Change on Habitat Quality in Zhongwei Based on the PLUS Model Coupled with the InVEST Model

Abstract Land use change is a key factor affecting habitat quality. In order to reveal the impacts of urban land use changes on habitat quality, this paper uses the city of Zhongwei, China, as a case study. Based on the land use data from 1980, 2000 and 2020, the PLUS-InVEST coupled model was used to predict and assess the land use and habitat quality of Zhongwei. The results showed that from 1980 to 2020, the areas of construction land and woodland increased significantly, while the areas of water and unused land decreased slightly, and the other lands remained essentially unchanged. The main factors such as precipitation, temperature, population and distance from government distance influenced the land expansion. Moreover, the habitat quality in Zhongwei showed a decreasing trend. The overall area of low habitat quality increased, while the overall area of relatively low and medium habitat quality decreased, and the other remained essentially unchanged between 2000 and 2020. The predicted habitat quality of the study area in 2040 was compared under different development scenarios. The comparison of results showed that highest habitat quality and the lowest habitat degradation under the Ecological protection scenario. Although the afforestation and desertification control projects in Zhongwei have proved successful in increasing woodland and improving habitat quality, its ecological restoration measures have not yet completely counteracted the adverse effects of ongoing urbanization and industrialization on habitat quality, resulting in a persistent decline in overall habitat quality.