A Retrospective Study Of The Clinical Significance Of Hemoconcentration As An Early Prognostic Marker For The Development Of Severe Acute Pancreatitis

Objective: to study the relationship between hematocrit indicators during the first 6 hours after the patient's hospitalization and the development of complications of acute pancreatitis. Materials and methods. The study included 243 patients with acute pancreatitis. All patients were examined for hematocrit at admission. The multivariate analysis made it possible to determine whether there was a correlation between the presence of hemoconcentration in patients (hematocrit ≥43) at the time of admission with the development of complications of acute pancreatitis. The predictive effectiveness of this marker was estimated by the area under the ROC curve. Results. Severe acute pancreatitis was observed in 36 (14.8%) patients. Average hematocrit values were 43.2 ± 6.4% (P0,01). In the first 6 hours after admission, hemoconcentration was observed in 72.2% of patients with acute pancreatitis who later developed complications of this disease. Statistical analysis of the data obtained showed that the sensitivity of hemoconcentration for early diagnosis of acute pancreatitis complications is 0.722, and the specificity is 0.802. The positive predictive value was 0.388 and the negative predictive value was 0.943. Conclusions: the presence of hemoconcentration in patients with acute pancreatitis in the first 6 hours after hospitalization is undesirable to use for predicting complications of this pathology, since the independent positive prognostic significance of this marker is only 38.8%.