How Exile Escalates Revolution

Although scholars initially hypothesized that exile reduces domestic conflict, recent research finds that forcing political challengers abroad correlates with subsequent political instability. However, the mechanisms linking exile and contentious politics remain unexplored. This paper investigates how exile exacerbates domestic contention with original data on exile participation in revolutions, and argues that under certain conditions exile bestows benefits on challengers relative to being based domestically. First, we show that revolutionary challenges are more likely to occur in countries with former leaders in exile, and that revolutionary challenges led by exiles are longer and more violent than those led by domestically based actors. Additional analyses reveal important linking mechanisms; exile’s escalating effects are strongest when exiles are geographically proximate, maintain a sustained presence abroad, provide direct leadership, secure international support, or establish governments-in-exile. Finally, exile is most escalating for revolutions that would otherwise be relatively peaceful. Our study highlights an important but neglected feature of revolutionary contention and advances a broader research agenda on exile and contentious politics.