Ilgtspējīgas attīstības sistēmanalīze = System analysis of sustainable development

Topic of the thesis: system analysis of sustainable development. Research hypothesis: sustainable development planning and monitoring model allows to assess the development of various socio-economic systems (countries). The aim of the doctoral thesis: to analyze sustainable development processes, based on a systemic approach, in order to create a sustainable development monitoring model and develop proposals for planning the strategic goals of Latvia’s sustainable development. Tasks solved to achieve the goal. 1. To study the theoretical aspects, concepts and models of sustainable development in the world. 2. To compare and systematically analyze the development indicators of different socio-economic systems (countries) in terms of money and energy units. 3. To develop sustainable development assessment methodology and sustainable development monitoring model, using system power change system analysis approach and invariant coordinate system. 4. To analyze within a systemic approachthe indicators of sustainable development of Latvia and forecast them in the invariant coordinate system in energy units 2030 and 2060. Research methods used: scientific: content analysis; monographic method; method of analysis and synthesis; induction method; deduction method; the logically constructive method. Statistical analyses: descriptive statistical method; mathematical data analysis method; time series analysis. Other: Granger method, causality test; Pearson correlation test; Durbin-Watson test. Study period: from 1990 to 2019, excluding developed countries USA, Japan, France, Germany and Italy data 1960-2019 and Latvia's 2021 data. The main scientific novelties of the doctoral thesis: in this interdisciplinary study, the methodology for evaluating indicators of sustainable development of socio-economic systems (countries) has been developed, using natural science processes and connecting the regularities of economics, mathematics, physics and the environment. The sustainable development monitoring model – SDMM – has been created. Sustainable development indicators in energy units have been formulated for the first time in Latvia. The socio-economic indicators of Latvia and several other countries are analyzed in the context of sustainable development, as well as the possible scenarios of sustainable development of Latvia until 2030 and 2060 are modeled. Economic significance: the results of the study can be used in the process of planning, evaluation and monitoring of sustainable development indicators of state and local government institutions, in the study process of higher education institutions on sustainable development issues. Theses to be defended. Thesis 1: the study of the theoretical aspects of sustainable development is the basis for evaluating the shortcomings of existing concepts and methods and for further improvement. Thesis 2: the formalization of the principles of sustainable development in energy units, using the invariant coordinate system and the power change system analysis, allows determining the current state and target indicators of any socio-economic system (country), indicating problems and predicting development scenarios. Thesis 3: The sustainable development planning and monitoring model of Latvia in the invariant coordinate system in energy units allows to predict the possible scenarios of the country's development. The structure of the doctoral thesis is made in accordance with the proposed hypothesis, the set goal and tasks and consists of three chapters with subsections. The first chapter of the work analyzes the prerequisites and historical aspects of the formation of the concept of sustainable development, the models of strong and weak sustainability, the concept of the capital theory approach. The use of the approach of natural sciences in economics is studied and the concept of sustainable development in energy units is described, as well as the capacity (energy flow) model of the socio-economic system. In the second chapter, 15 different socio-economic systems (countries) were chosen to test the SDMM and country indicators were compared according to two methods: (1) gross domestic product in monetary terms; (2) development indicators in the invariant coordinate system in energy units, based on the methodology of the author of the doctoral thesis, which is based on the models of scientists Kuznecov and Odum. Thus, different results of the sustainable development assessment of the analyzed countries were obtained and their importance was explained not only in the current (concrete) situation of the country, but especially in forecasting and monitoring future development. The third chapter analyzes the Latvia’s sustainable development planning and monitoring system. Four possible scenarios of sustainable development of Latvia until 2030 and 2060 are predicted within the framework of the created sustainable development monitoring model (SDMM). At the end of the work, the main results and problems of the study are formulated, as well as proposals for their solution are put forward. The length of the dissertation (Ph.D.) for obtaining a scientific degree in social sciences is 148 pages. The work contains 66 tables, 49 images, 18 annexes (on 55 pages), 257 sources of information are used, incl. 231 sources – in English. The doctoral thesis was developed thanks to the support of Latvia University of Life Sciences and Technologies scientific projects: No. 8.2.2.0/20/I/001 “Transition of LLU to the new doctoral funding model” (2023) and Z70 “Integrated approach to determining socio-economic indicators of sustainable development” (2023-2024).