A shifting baseline theory of debates over potential lynx and wolf reintroductions to Scotland

Abstract In Scotland, efforts to reintroduce extirpated species have been marred by guerrilla rewilding and social conflicts. We ask whether these conflicts could at least in part be the product of shifting baseline syndrome. The multi-generational absence of many large charismatic species has resulted in an ‘extinction of experience’ about how to coexist with them embedded within the structures, institutions, and cultural products of Scottish landscapes. We draw on academic literature, popular media, and policy documents to consider debates over the potential reintroduction of the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) and wolf (Canis lupus) to Scotland from a shifting baseline perspective. The paucity of (scientific and historical) knowledge about the social and ecological impacts of locally extinct species and the loss of coexistence experience has created more fertile ground for myths and wishful thinking to proliferate uninhibited, resulting in the romantic and cynical cultural transformation of the lynx and wolf in Scottish society. We argue that empathetic, patient, and transparent dialogue can help to co-produce shared visions of rural landscapes, with or without large carnivores, which retain ecological ambition and support multiple land-use systems, while ensuring that any transitions are socially just and economically feasible.