Haemodynamic gain index and heart failure incidence- Prognostic and preventive value

Abstract Aims Heart failure (HF) is a non-curable, life-threatening condition, characterized by impaired haemodynamic function and poor survival. This study aimed to assess the association between haemodynamic gain index (HGI) and HF incidence in men. Methods and results Exposure was HGI, [(HRpeak*SBPpeak) − (HRrest*SBPrest)]/(HRrest*SBPrest) measured from treadmill exercise testing in 5539 men aged 59 ± 11.5 years who were free from HF at baseline. The outcome was the incidence of HF. Cox hazard models adjusted for established risk factors were analysed for the association between HGI and HF. During 14.3 ± 6 years of follow-up, 297 cases of HF occurred (average annual incidence rate 3.7 events per 1000 person-years) and average HGI was 1.6 ± 0.7 bpm/mmHg. In a continuous model, every one unit higher in HGI was associated with a 44% [hazard ratio 0.56, 95% confidence interval (0.45–0.69), P < 0.001] lower risk of HF incidence. In a categorical model, compared with those in quartile-4 (HGI > 2.0), those in quartile-3 (HGI 1.51-2.0), quartile-2 (HGI 1.05-1.5), and quartile-1 (HGI < 1.05) exhibited 70%, 220%, and 280% higher risks for developing HF, respectively (P trend < 0.001). Conclusion HGI was found to be a strong predictor of HF incidence in men, supporting its prognostic value. Higher HGI was independently associated with lower risk of HF incidence, while low HGI could serve as a prognostic risk factor for HF. Integrating HGI in the screening and early detection paradigm and referring individuals with low HGI to exercise rehabilitation could potentially enhance public health and prevention strategies against HF.