Methodological Tools for Logistics Chain Optimization in Oil Refining amid Import Substitution

Sanction pressure and disruption of international supply chains have made it necessary to find and make optimal decisions to provide oil refineries with the necessary material resources. The authors mean material resources supplied from European countries, one of such components that are critical in oil refining are catalysts. The purpose of the study is to develop a methodological approach to choosing the optimal model for organizing a logistics chain in the context of import substitution for oil refining enterprises. The paper analyzes typical solutions available to decision makers in the context of disruption of oil refinery logistics chains, identifies critical nodes and limitations that arise due to restrictions in access to external suppliers, technologies and equipment. Particular attention is paid to assessing the degree of dependence on imported components, the degree of flexibility of logistics routes and the regional specifics of the logistics infrastructure. A model of logistics choice «Производить или покупать» in the context of import substitution has been developed, including three strategies: organizing in-house production, purchasing through alternative logistics channels, and switching to similar products from new suppliers. The model takes into account logistics and geopolitical risks, which allows making adaptive decisions in the context of sanctions pressure. An algorithm for selecting the optimal logistics chain model is proposed, which is based on an assessment of the criticality of components, the level of enterprise autonomy, available resources, and the risk of supply disruption. The algorithm includes the stages of collecting initial data, formalizing the conditions of the problem, constructing a matrix of acceptable alternatives, ranking them according to a set of criteria, and making an informed decision taking into account sustainability, cost-effectiveness, availability, and technological feasibility. A system of criteria for evaluating logistics strategies has been formed, including total costs, implementation periods, technological compatibility, logistics risks, and the strategic importance of components. This allows for an informed choice of a logistics solution that meets both current operating conditions and long-term goals of import independence. Main methods: analysis, synthesis, comparison, systems approach, expert assessment. The proposed toolkit is aimed at practical application in the activities of logistics services and supply departments of enterprises, helps to reduce dependence on imports, increase the sustainability and adaptability of logistics systems. In the future, it is possible to integrate the model with digital platforms, monitoring systems and digital twins of logistics chains, which will open up opportunities for forecasting, testing scenarios and improving the quality of logistics planning in conditions of high uncertainty.