Observations and Forecasts from the Landfall of Tropical Cyclones John, Lane, and Paul (2006) over Northwestern Mexico

Abstract This study focuses on track and intensity changes of three tropical cyclones that, during the season of 2006, developed in the eastern North Pacific basin and made landfall over northwestern Mexico. Observational datasets, including satellite and radar imagery and a rain gauge network, are used to document regional-scale structures. Additionally, gridded fields are applied to determine the large-scale environment. John made landfall as a category-2 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale and moved along the Baja California Peninsula during more than 40 h, resulting in total rainfall of up to 506 mm. The largest accumulations were located over mountains and set new records with respect to daily rates from the 1969–2005 period. Later in the season, Lane and Paul made landfall over the mainland and brought moderate rainfall over the coastal plains. Lane became a category-3 hurricane and was the third strongest hurricane to make landfall since 1969. In contrast, Paul followed a recurving track to reach the coastline as a weakening tropical depression. Strong wind shear, associated with a midlatitude trough, is found to be related to the intensity change. Examination of the official forecasts reveals that first inland positions were predicted several days before the actual landfall events. An assessment of the forecasts issued 1–3 days prior to landfall shows large track errors associated with some of the above tropical cyclones and this resulted in a westward bias. It is suggested that the track errors are due to an inadequate representation of the large-scale environment that steered the tropical cyclones.