A Maxent modelling with a geospatial approach for the Habitat suitability of Flamingos in an Evanescing Ramsar site (Sambhar Lake, India) over the changing climatic scenarios

Abstract Wetlands play a crucial role in the biosphere and provide numerous services. They performed multiple functions such as groundwater recharge, water purification, conservation of biological resources, act as a carbon sink and habitat of amphibians and birds. A Ramsar site-the Sambhar Lake is one of the largest inland saline wetland present in the arid region of Rajasthan, India has unique habitat suitability for the winter avifauna migrants like flamingoes and falcons. The occurrence of suitable climatic conditions and food availability like brine shrimps ( Artemia salina ) attracts flocks of migratory birds. From the last three decades, Sambhar Lake has been continuously facing degradation due to anthropogenic activities, which disturb Lake’s natural ecology and existence. These cause disturbances in habitat suitability of migratory birds in the Sambhar Lake, which leads to a reduction of population density of migratory birds. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the degradation and vulnerability of Sambhar Lake and the habitat suitability of migratory birds using Maxent Habitat Suitability model. This model provides a platform to integrate the bird’s occurrence data with the bioclimatic variables using remote sensing and Geographical Information System, and provides bird’s habitat suitability as well as predicts future bird’s occurrence scenarios. Landsat-5 and Sentinel-2 imagery for the year 1996 and 2019 respectively were used in this study. Four indicators such as LULC NDWI, MSI and SABI depicts the environmental condition of the Sambhar Lake. Output form Maxent model reveals that the Sambhar lake area with increasing anthropogenic activities has become unsuitable for flamingos. A remarkable loss of breeding sites of animal, particularly avian fauna (flamingos) is seen in the recent years due to different types of threats posed on the Ramsar site. Increase in Salt crust and Vegetation area from 36.8055 to 123.837 Sq. Km. and 26.5347 to 36.857 Sq. Km. respectively have taken place. While a decrease in saline water area from 88.8309 to 19.3256 Sq. Km has been observed, within the vicinity of Sambhar Lake as clearly shown through LULC map. The future prediction of the distribution of species in the region for the year 2050 shows that the most suitable regions will be near to Jhapok and nearby waters of Salt Lake City as the drains from the city opens in the lake where the flamingoes get Algae in the form of food. Active steps are needed for the lake conservation to reduce the risks of migratory bird’s population.