Fault slip envelope: A new parametric investigation tool for fault slip based on geomechanics and 3D fault geometry

Abstract. By combining 3D boundary element model, frictional slip theory and fast computation method, we propose a new tool to improve fault slip analysis that allows to analyze a very large number of scenarios of stress and fault mechanical properties variations through space and time. Using both synthetic and real fault system geometries we analyze a very large number of numerical simulations (125,000) using fast iterative method to define for the first time macroscopic rupture envelopes for fault systems, referred to as “fault slip envelopes”. Fault slip envelopes are defined using variable friction, cohesion and stress state, and their shape is directly related to the fault system 3D geometry and the friction coefficient on fault surfaces. The obtained fault slip envelopes shows that very complex fault geometry implies low and isotropic strength of the fault system compared to geometry having limited fault orientations relative to the remote stresses, providing strong strength anisotropy. This technique is applied to the realistic geological conditions of the Olkiluoto high-level nuclear waste repository (Finland). The model results suggests that Olkiluoto fault system has a better probability to slip under the present day Andersonian thrust stress regime, than for the strike-slip and normal stress regimes expected in the future due to the probable presence of an ice sheet. This new tool allows to quantify the anisotropy of strength and probability of slip of 3D real fault networks as a function of a wide range of possible geological conditions an mechanical properties. This significantly helps to define the most conservative fault slip hazard case or to account for potential uncertainties in the input data for slip. This technique therefore applies to earthquakes hazard studies, geological storage, geothermal resources along faults and fault leaks/seals in geological reservoirs.