Meta-Analysis and MaxEnt Model Prediction of the Distribution of the Phenacoccus solenopsis in China under the Background of Climate Change

Abstract The Phenacoccus solenopsis poses a serious threat to global crops, and controlling climate change has become a crucial strategy. In this study,it through a comprehensive analysis of experimental data, found that within the suitable temperature range, the survival rate of the P.Tinsley increases with rising temperatures, indicating that climate plays a decisive role in its distribution. Using the MaxEnt model, in this study, it predicted that under three future climate scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5), the distribution of the P.Tinsley will expand and move towards higher latitudes. Climate change is the primary factor influencing changes in pest distribution. In this study it was conducted a Meta-analysis of the P.Tinsley, including seven independent studies covering 221 observation results, and examined the impact of temperature ranging from 18°C to 39°C on the developmental cycle of the P.Tinsley. As the temperature rises, the development cycle of the P.Tinsley. gradually decreases.Additionally, in combination with the MaxEnt model, it predicted the current and potential future distribution range of the P.Tinsley. The results show that under future climate warming, the distribution area of P.Tinsley in China will expand.This research provides a theoretical basis for early monitoring and control of this pest's occurrence and spread. Therefore, the predictive results of this study will provide important information for managers in monitoring the P.Tinsley and help them formulate relevant control strategies.