The Sound of Distant Thunder

The chapter compares the pre-1914 Anglo-German antagonism with the current Sino-American relationship to address two issues. First, does the rise of new great powers lead to war? Second, are rising great powers prone to challenge the existing international order into which they emerge—that is, are rising great powers “revisionists”? China’s rapid ascent has pushed these two questions to the top of the agendas of both international relations scholars and policy makers alike. This chapter shows that the United States and China are on a collision course. Like Britain and Germany before World War I, the United States and China seem fated, at best, to engage in an intense security competition; at worst, war between them is a real possibility. One reason the Sino-American rivalry is intensifying is because a rising China inevitably will seek to revise the current international order that the United States established after World War II.