Quantifying the Transformational Requirements of the Electricity Sector Under Uncertain Expectations of Carbon Removal

Abstract Decarbonization and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) are crucial for achieving global climate targets. The power sector is pivotal in this process, yet the role of CDR in deep decarbonization and its implications on the sector have been underexplored. Using a global multi-sector model, we quantify the effects of CDR on the transformation of the power sector under different CDR reliance levels by 2050 — high (4–10 Gt/yr), moderate (2.5-5 Gt/yr), and low (≤ 1Gt/yr)—aligned with 1.5°C and 2°C climate targets. We show that BECCS is essential for future electricity demands, particularly in Asia and Central America. High CDR pathways could require 10–20% of electricity consumption in South America and Australia/New Zealand for carbon removal. Major economies like China, the US, and India face significant investment needs, risking stranded assets worth up to US$165–225 billion by mid-century under low CDR compared to high CDR. Regions heavily dependent on coal, such as China and India, face greater stranding costs, while gas-dependent regions like the Middle East and Russia have relatively lower costs. Global mitigation efforts with limited CDR require a 15% reduction in committed emissions compared to high-CDR scenarios, with the most pronounced reduction of 65% anticipated for India.