Population dynamics with spatial structure and an Allee effect

Abstract Allee effects describe populations in which long-term survival is only possible if the population density is above some threshold level. A simple mathematical model of an Allee effect is one where initial densities below the threshold lead to population extinction, whereas initial densities above the threshold eventually asymptote to some positive carrying capacity density. Mean field models of population dynamics neglect spatial structure that can arise through short-range interactions, such as short-range competition and dispersal. The influence of such non mean-field effects has not been studied in the presence of an Allee effect. To address this we develop an individual-based model (IBM) that incorporates both short-range interactions and an Allee effect. To explore the role of spatial structure we derive a mathematically tractable continuum approximation of the IBM in terms of the dynamics of spatial moments. In the limit of long-range interactions where the mean-field approximation holds, our modelling framework accurately recovers the mean-field Allee threshold. We show that the Allee threshold is sensitive to spatial structure that mean-field models neglect. For example, we show that there are cases where the mean-field model predicts extinction but the population actually survives and vice versa. Through simulations we show that our new spatial moment dynamics model accurately captures the modified Allee threshold in the presence of spatial structure.