A real-time prediction model for macroseismic intensity in China

AbstractThe macroseismic intensity spatial distribution is an important input for most rapid loss modeling and emergency work. Data from a total of 175 earthquakes (Ms ≥ 5.0) in China from 1966 to 2014 were collected, and the rapid assessment method of macroseismic intensity distribution was studied. First, simple relationships among the epicentral intensity, magnitude, and focal depth were established. A greater amount of database is used in this study than that in a previous work (Fu and Liu in Sci R 4(5): 350-354 (1960), Mei in Chin J Geophys 9(1): 1–18 (1960), and Yan et al. in Sci Chin 11: 1050-1058 (1984)), and the studied earthquakes all occurred in the last 50 years, providing more accurate and uniform parameter information. As the seismic intensity-attenuation relationship is traditionally used to estimate the intensity distribution, the macroseismic intensity-attenuation relationship for mainland China was fitted by the earthquake data collected in this region. The deviation of the intensity assessment by the macroseismic intensity-attenuation relationship was examined for 43 earthquakes (Ms ≥ 6.0). In addition, seismic damage emergency assessment work requires the isoseismal lines to be constantly modified according to the updated information. Therefore, an improved ellipse intensity-attenuation model was proposed in this study, completed by the establishment of a semimajor axis and semiminor axis length matrix. Based on the initial value of the length matrix obtained by the regression of historical data and survey data from the site, the least mean squares (LMS) algorithm is used to revise the length matrix. In the end, the practicability of this method is verified by a case study of the Lijiang 7.0 earthquake.