Comprehensive analysis of the mining accident forecasting and risk assessment methodologies: Case study – Stanterg Mine

Purpose. This research aims to outline a methodology for accident forecasting and risk assessment in mining operations using the Stanterg Mine as a case study. It emphasises the crucial role of reliable mining accident reporting and accurate data processing in forecasting accidents and effectively managing risks during mining operations. Methods. The research paper analyzes various methodologies for forecasting mining accidents using Excel and Simple Linear Regression Method (SLRM) to analyse data selected from the Stanterg Mine accidents. Findings. The forecast indicates that on average there are about 3 accidents per month at the Stanterg Mine. The analysis, based on a one-month study of 42 reported accidents, and assuming a steady production rate, suggests an increased risk of accidents. This is supported by a thorough assessment using a 3×3 risk assessment matrix tailored to the Stanterg Mine. Stope mining is highlighted as the most hazardous area, associated with risks ranging from moderate to extreme levels. Originality. Mining accident analysis at the Stanterg Mine involves an examination of the incidents, including factors leading to accidents, encountered hazards and their consequences. Accident forecasting entails studying historical data, identifying patterns, and using predictive modelling to anticipate future incidents. This proactive approach enables mining companies to proactively address risks and take preventative measures, reducing the probability of accidents. Practical implications. The systematic processing and analysis of mining accidents has revealed valuable insights into the practical application of risk assessment in mining operations. The examination of accidents at the Stanterg Mine provides researchers with crucial knowledge for effective risk assessment and management in the mining sector.