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Six failures of the Doherty Modelling Report
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The Doherty Model is being used in Australia to justify partial reopening with 70% of adults vaccinated. However, we have identified six critical failures of the model: failure to model uncertainties; failure to use appropriate premises; failure to model subgroup vaccine takeup; failure to correctly model child transmission; failure to include relevant outcomes; and failure to consider longer time-frames. These failures result in missing over 200,000 cases of long covid in children, underestimating death counts by a factor of up to ten, underestimating the severity of the delta variant by a factor of two, and greatly underestimating the potential downside risk.
Title: Six failures of the Doherty Modelling Report
Description:
The Doherty Model is being used in Australia to justify partial reopening with 70% of adults vaccinated.
However, we have identified six critical failures of the model: failure to model uncertainties; failure to use appropriate premises; failure to model subgroup vaccine takeup; failure to correctly model child transmission; failure to include relevant outcomes; and failure to consider longer time-frames.
These failures result in missing over 200,000 cases of long covid in children, underestimating death counts by a factor of up to ten, underestimating the severity of the delta variant by a factor of two, and greatly underestimating the potential downside risk.
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