Urbanization in Dynamics: The Influence of Land Quota Trading on Land and Population Urbanization

Establishing a unified urban–rural construction land market, facilitating factors flow within urban and rural areas, and promoting people-centered new urbanization are important strategies for China to achieve high-quality development in the new era. The land quota trading (LQT) system in Chongqing is an essential policy practice. This study analyzes the impact mechanism of the LQT policy on land and population urbanization through the lens of urban spatial expansion, population migration, and human–land coordination. Using the time-varying DID model and examining from both sending and receiving areas’ perspectives, we assesses the impact of the LQT policy on the land urbanization, population urbanization, and urbanization coordination of Chongqing’s 38 districts and counties since 2009. We also analyzes the spatial heterogeneity of the policy. The results indicate the following: (1) The implementation of the LQT policy has a significant positive effect on land urbanization, population urbanization, and urbanization coordination. (2) The impact of the LQT policy shows spatial heterogeneity; its influence on pure receiving areas’ land and population urbanization is more substantial, reflecting the further concentration of land and population elements towards the urban center due to the LQT policy. (3) At the county level, the implementation of the LQT policy only significantly affects population urbanization, with no notable impact on land urbanization, which indicates that the LQT is an import practice to realize policies of the linkage of increase and decrease of construction land, and the citizenization of farmers.